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As we look forward to the year 2025, it appears that the reign of Big Tech may be coming to an end. This shift is not only evident in the opposition from political parties, mainstream pundits, and tech giants like Y Combinator, but also in the challenges that Big Tech is facing within its own industry. One major area of concern for Big Tech is the AI business, in which it has made significant investments. However, there are signs that this sector is losing steam, causing worries for major players like Goldman Sachs and Sequoia Capital.
The concerns about the AI business model are valid, as there are serious issues that need to be addressed. The billions of dollars required to construct and operate large-scale AI systems are daunting, especially when the market fit and returns on investment are not as promising as previously thought. This lack of viability in the AI sector is just one of the many reasons why Big Tech is expected to fail in the coming years.
One of the key factors contributing to Big Tech’s downfall is its economic model, which has had far-reaching collateral effects. The centralization of power, constant monitoring of users, and control over information flow have all contributed to a sense of unease among the public and policymakers. The outage caused by Microsoft’s corner-cutting in mid-2024, which affected hospitals, banks, and transportation systems globally, serves as a stark reminder of the dangers of allowing too much power to be concentrated in the hands of a few tech giants.
The issue of privacy is also a growing concern, particularly in relation to AI technologies. As more and more sensitive data is collected and analyzed by AI systems, there is a risk of privacy erosion. Microsoft’s introduction of Recall, a system that captures users’ activities on their devices to create a “perfect memory” of their computer usage, is a clear example of this trend. Such invasive practices are contributing to a growing backlash against Big Tech and its disregard for user privacy.
However, the decline of Big Tech is not necessarily a cause for despair. In fact, it is creating opportunities for new and innovative players to enter the tech industry and offer alternatives to the monopolistic practices of the incumbents. Open source developers, governance researchers, and tech sector economists are coming together to explore new models for tech development that prioritize democracy, independence, openness, and transparency.
Financial backers are also starting to shift their focus towards supporting projects that align with these values. Mission-aligned financing methods are emerging, offering a new approach to funding innovation and development that rejects surveillance, social control, and exploitative practices. By combining traditional venture capital incentives with investments in open, nonprofit infrastructure, these new financiers are creating a more sustainable and equitable tech ecosystem.
There is also a growing recognition of the role that state capital can play in supporting these alternative tech projects. Initiatives like Germany’s Sovereign Tech Fund, which distributes state funds to key open source infrastructure projects, demonstrate that there is a need for public support for independent tech development. By separating the state from the work it finances, these programs can help ensure that tech innovation remains free from government influence and control.
In conclusion, the impending demise of Big Tech in 2025 is not a cause for fear, but rather an opportunity to rebuild a healthier and more innovative tech ecosystem. By supporting projects that prioritize openness, transparency, and user privacy, we can create a tech industry that benefits society as a whole, rather than just a select few. Let us embrace this shift and work towards a future where technology serves the common good, not just the bottom line.
